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ECONOMIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL Two of the trickiest phenomena confronting economic forecasters are turning points and tipping points. Economic models tend to be linear, continuing trends with minor modications and using “reversion to the mean” when elements of the market seem to be getting out of balance. But the moments of greatest opportunity and of greatest risk come when trends reverse direction, and when linear change becomes exponential change. Both of those conditions now appear to be on the economic horizon. As always in the real estate realm, employment gures are a critical variable. Since the onset of the Great Recession, labor market conditions have been far out of balance. Unemployment has been high – both in the headline rate and in the more comprehensive U-6 jobless series. Once out of work, the duration of unemployment has been exceptionally long. Even since hiring has resumed, the slack in the labor market has held income growth below the level of ination. The economic basis for those conditions is about to change, powerfully. It will catch many by surprise. Already we are seeing spot shortages of workers in both blue- collar (truckers, construction laborers) and white-collar (computer coders, engineers, accounting and nance staff). Who is worrying about this? Establishment pillars like The Conference Board and the Manpower recruiting rm. As unemployment trends toward 5.5 percent, a level expected in 2015, rms will need to be more aggressive in attracting and retaining talent. One implication for the ofce sector: the end of the space compression trend. Instead, expect companies to send their space designers back to the drawing board with instructions to provide ofces that feature prestige, privacy, and perks. That is going to be a profound shift for urban real estate. NEW YORK CITY The September Federal Reserve Beige Book report for New York conrms continuing growth in the regional economy, with New York City itself showing stronger indicators than its surrounding suburbs. Employment agencies describe the job market as strengthening, especially in the Service Sector. A growing number of workers are switching jobs for increased pay. Business loan demand is up, a signal of future expansion. Bankers are reporting delinquency rate declining in all loan categories. Tourism and retail sales are up in NYC. Altogether, New York appears to be staying ahead of the curve in key economic fundamentals. One sign of the continued optimism about New York’s future is the strength of the apartment market, where rents are rising briskly and a strong pipeline of development in Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Queens. The improving economy and housing production in the boroughs helped MTA subway ridership increase 3.9 percent in the since this time last year. This is right in line with the increase 101,000 private sector jobs in the City over the same timeframe. In sum, New York City enters the nal quarter of 2014 with solid conditions and excellent economic momentum. MANHATTAN OFFICE MARKET LEASING Riding the wave of the growing NYC economy, and taking advantage of the quantity of new space being added to the market, Manhattan posted its best net ofce absorption of this recovery over the course of 2014’s Third Quarter, at 1,945,449 square feet. Both Class A and Class B ofces improved occupancy, and the overall vacancy rate dropped back to 8.1%, after rising earlier in the year with the delivery of new product. Reecting that, we found Downtown ofces capturing six of the quarter’s largest leases. Meanwhile, rents continued the trend we noted in the 2nd quarter, with the gap between Class A and Class B average rents narrowing to historically thin levels. Things are likely to tighten NEW YORK METRO AREA HAS SURPASSED PRIOR PEAK EMPLOYMENT – JOBS AT AN ALL-TIME HIGH Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistic 4900 4950 5000 5050 5100 5150 5200 5250 5300 5350 5400 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 THOUSANDS VACANCY AT 8.1 % AS NYC JOBS STAY STRONG Positive Net Absorption of Nearly 2 Million SF in 3rd Quarter O VERALL MARKET VACANCY, IN PERCENT ANNUAL DATA QUARTERLY DATA 1997 1999 2001 2012 q1 2013 q1 2003 q1 2003 q3 2004 q1 2006 q4 2007 q3 2004 q3 2005 q2 2006 q1 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2008 q2 2009 q1 2011 q2 2009 q4 2010 q3 2012 q3 2013 q3 2014 q1 2014 q3 Source: CoStar REFLECTS MOST RECENT REVISIONS TO THE DATA SERIES AS OF 9/30/14 DIFFERENCE IN COMPREHENSIVE UNEMPLOYMENT (U-6) COMPARED TO “OFFICIAL” UNEMPLOYMENT (U-3) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistic JOBLESS RATES IN PERCENT 8 6 4 2 0 8 6 4 2 U-6 U-3 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
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