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1 ECONOMIC LEADING INDICATORS FINANCIAL RISK PRICE & VALUATION DEMAND/SUPPLY CYCLE FX, RATES & INFLATION Introduction WHAT IS THIS BOOK USED FOR? • Tristan’s research team monitors a wide range of economic, capital markets and real estate data as part of its day-to-day activities. This book presents the ‘financial risk’ metrics that we typically observe. • The data are a combination of credit, equity and foreign exchange variables. In some cases the variables are presented in isolation, in some cases they are aggregated into proprietary indices. • The data can be updated real-time but in most cases are refreshed weekly and published monthly. In all cases we are looking for unusual movements, to either the upside or downside, that might signal a shift in the risk tolerance of investors that we can capitalise on as a buyer or as a seller. • This data sits alongside other analysis we provide on the economy, pricing, valuation and the real estate supply/demand fundamentals on a similar basis. Taken together we believe this provides us with a solid top-down picture of the investing environment that allows us to make decisions with conviction. FRM Summary Risk Tolerance Index Risk Heatmaps Composite Stress RTI & EUR Fin Stress Relative Credit Cost Spread Table Corp Credit Spreads Equity Volatility Equity Skew RTI & MSCI Volatility Indices HIT THE TAB TO JUMP TO THESE PAGES THE SPEED-READ – WHAT IS THE TAKEAWAY? • FX vol and HY spreads are up. Bank credit spreads flat/down. • Reflects the impact of some rolling over in economic sentiment in Europe but more QE • Also some nerves over US/UK tightening cycle starting and fx impact. • Effect on the TCPAGG is to soften it slightly (66 to 63). • The AGG remains in the low-end of the ‘goldilocks’ zone (50 th to 75th percentile).
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