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What is happening now is that investors are seeing the potential for US rates to increase so borrowing costs increase. Now they can essentially get more return if they invest in the US bonds as they will pay higher interest. These foreign investors then sell their Australian investments and move the money back over to USD before the currency drops and they erode their capital gains…in effect actually making the currency fall itself as they sell AUD to buy USD. The thing about the carry trade is it generally involves huge sums of money and can take weeks or even months to unwind. Think about how long and sustained the rise in Australian yield stocks has been and the rise of the AUD. Many of these stocks have seen massive capital gains, as well as paying huge dividends which generally doesn’t add up. A c ompany paying out profits and forfeiting growth opportunities generally won’t see huge capital appreciation on the share price. With the currency now starting to fall, the US potentially lifting interest rates and the Asian/Australian economy looking sluggish, there is going to be a huge unwind of this carry trade. Investors holding cash at the moment will hopefully be able to take advantage of some bargains should the market fall back to around the 5000 point level. Australian domestic manufacturers, USD focused earners and exporters should see profits increase as they begin to get more bang for their dollar as the AUD keeps falling. Looking at the XJO it’s possible that this market drops back to around 5100 points which would be a great buying opportunity for investors. XJO Weekly
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