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ECONOMIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL As the calendar turned to 2015, the economic indicators for the United States were the strongest in a decade or more. After the “polar vortex plunge” of 2014’s First Quarter, America’s real GDP surged 4.6 percent in the Second Quarter and 5.0 percent in the Third Quarter. The long-playing “this is a jobless recovery” song has nally come to the end of its groove. The annual year-over-year employment change gure has been up by more than 2% since September, and by year-end 2014 the net change in employment for the United States was plus 2,952,000. The base unemployment rate is down to 5.6% and, as we detailed in the October issue of this newsletter, demographics suggest that joblessness will become startlingly low in the near future. Plunging energy prices have given an immediate boost to the economy. With lower gas prices, consumers have more money to spend on other goods and services. Ination forecasts have been coming down, but the stock market has been nervous about prot impacts. The major indexes were exceptionally volatile during the second half of 2014. Capital sources, concerned about global event risk, have been redirecting funds into commercial real estate, especially into the Manhattan market as a hedge. NEW YORK CITY The 12-month job change for New York City per the most recent data showed a solid 2% growth, a net addition of 79,400 jobs, even accounting for 1,700 jobs lost in the Government sector. Ofce-using sectors were up, led by Professional and Business Services ( 21,400, or 3.3%) and Finance ( 3,900, or 0.9%). The so-called “Eds and Meds” sector showed the strongest absolute growth ( 26,500 jobs, or 3.2%), and the Leisure and Hospitality industries had the fastest percentage growth (3.3%, or 13,500 jobs), a testimony to the nearly 55 million tourists enjoying the city. Growth in the arts and entertainment elds, and in the “creative technology” area by names like Google, BuzzFeed, and Twitter have bolstered higher-wage jobs and helped their network of suppliers and support rms expand as well. And, as anyone watching the city’s skyline can observe, construction jobs are booming as both megaprojects like Hudson Yards and the WTC, and one-off residential and hotel buildings are blossoming. With average wages of $54,000 per year, construction jobs are an important element of middle-class income for New York. MANHATTAN OFFICE MARKET LEASING Surprises to the upside also made 2014 an especially successful year for Manhattan ofce building investors and owners. Concerns about the volume of new deliveries to the market (more than 3 million square feet in 2014, after 2013’s deliveries of 4.9 million square feet) suggested that there would be upward pressure on the vacancy rate. Instead, where 2013 ended with an 8.4% vacancy in all Manhattan ofces, the year-end 2014 vacancy was just 7.8%. This was largely a result of more than three million square feet of net absorption in the Fourth Quarter, capping a year where the take-up of space exceeded six million square feet. 2014 was the best year for ofce absorption since 2005. Obviously, new deliveries have been exclusively Class A space, and vacancy in such buildings is a bit elevated at 9.2%. But absorption in this segment has been strong (nearly 4.9 million square feet in 2014) at average rents of almost $60 per square foot throughout 2014. Class B space is far tighter, at a 6.2% vacancy rate, and rents in this segment have climbed above $55 per square foot – up 13.8% from a year ago. Yet ROBUST NYC ECONOMY PUSHES FOURTH QUARTER VACANCY DOWN TO 7.8% O VERALL MARKET VACANCY, IN PERCENT ANNUAL DATA QUARTERLY DATA 1997 1999 2001 2012 q1 2013 q1 2003 q1 2003 q3 2004 q1 20 06 q4 2007 q3 2004 q3 2005 q2 2006 q1 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2008 q2 2009 q1 2011 q2 2009 q4 2010 q3 2012 q3 2013 q3 2014 q1 2014 q3 Source: CoStar REFLECTS MOST RECENT REVISIONS TO THE DATA SERIES AS OF 12/31/14 NEW YORK CITY EMPLOYMENT WAS STEADIER THAN U.S. IN RECESSION, AND HAS GROWN MORE ROBUSTLY IN RECOVERY Source: Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, indexed to value at January 2004 INDEX: JANUARY 2004 = 100 120 115 110 105 100 95 US NYC 2005 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
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