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2 Dun & Bradstreet’s Business Optimism Index – Qatar Global Outlook In its hal yearly report Global Economic Prospects, the World Bank has cut its growth orecast or the global economy in 2014 ollowing a weak start to the year in both rich and poor countries. Bad weather in the US, tension in the Ukraine, the slowdown in China and political strie in countries, such as Turkey, will all delay an expected pick-up in activity. The bank expects the global economy to grow by 2.8% in 2014 compared with the 3.2% orecast in January. Developing country expansion has been revised down rom 5.3% to 4.8%, while expansion in high-income countries has been shaved rom 2.2% to 1.9%. The report highlights the prospect o a third straight year o sub-5% growth in the developing world. However, ater a sluggish start to 2014, the bank expects activity to accelerate during the rest o the year and or global growth to be 3.4% in 2015 and 3.5% in 2016. A stronger perormance by the US and a gradual recovery in the Eurozone are expected to help developing countries by acting as markets or their exports. However, the report points out that a number o actors that could hit the developing world – nancial turmoil prompted by an end to the heavy doses o nancial stimulus used by central banks over the past ve years, the possibility o a hard landing in China, elevated geo-political risks in the Eastern Europe and Middle East regions and the vulnerability o some emerging market economies that combine high ination and current account decits, such as Brazil, South Arica and Turkey. Hydrocarbon Sector The IEA expects world oil demand in 2014 to average 92.76 million bpd, 960,000 bpd more than expected in May 2013. Global demand growth is expected to accelerate to 1.42 million bpd next year rom 1.32 million bpd in 2014. The report contrasts with the IEA’s previous medium-term update in May 2013, which had orecasted that US shale oil would help meet most o the world’s new oil demand, leaving little room or OPEC to lit output without risking lower prices. In the latest report, the IEA indicated that OPEC will need to pump more oil than expected in the previous medium-term report, raising its orecast o demand or OPEC crude plus inventories by 900,000 bpd to 30.1 million bpd in 2014. Underlining the steady shit o oil demand growth to Asia, the IEA said China would overtake the US as the world’s top crude oil importer as soon as this year. The average monthly OPEC basket increased modestly in April by 12¢ to USD 104.27 per barrel, supported by rmer rening margins, ongoing supply outages, and the return o some reneries rom maintenance. The average monthly OPEC basket increased urther by USD 1.17 in May to stand at USD 105.44 per barrel and inched up urther in June, amid rming sentiment in the crude oil market. Crude prices were supported by price speculation on account o lingering tensions in the Crimean peninsula between Ukraine and Russia, the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Iraq and Libya, and strong market indicators in the US, which are seen to drive demand in the US. According to OPEC, the ongoing rise in crude supply should be adequate to satisy the growth in oil demand in the second hal o 2014, resulting in a well-balanced market. The IMF projects that Qatar’s real GDP rom the Hydrocarbon sector will contract by 1% during 2014 but will return to positive territory in 2015, with a growth o 0.9%. While LNG production will remain steady at 76.3 million tons during 2014, crude oil production will decline rom 726,900 bpd in 2013 to 653,300 bpd in 2014. Qatar accounts or about one- third o global LNG trade and has become the key supplier or Japan, South Korea, India, and the UK. The tight LNG market and supply disruptions among other oil producers have kept Hydrocarbon prices high. LNG prices in Qatar’s main export markets in Asia have so ar remained largely unafected by the rapid growth in US unconventional gas and oil production. While a urther expansion o LNG production is possible, Qatar will maintain a moratorium on development o new Hydrocarbon projects until at least 2015 to give itsel time to assess its production perormance and carry out a comprehensive study o its North Field. The business optimism survey or the third quarter o 2014 shows a declining trend in the Hydrocarbon sector outlook. The composite BOI has been steadily declining since Q4,
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