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Sienna Weir 2014 Australian Investment Climate: 2007-now The Australian economy is impacted by many factors which in turn affect the investment climate. Some of these factors include the political environment, national security, employment market, taxation, inflation, infrastructure investment, interest rates and the currency. Due to the small size of our country compared to the rest of the world, Australia is intensely influenced by external factors such as trade and international politics. Overseas crisis’s have also affected the Australian investment climate, such as the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). First signs of distress due to the GFC developed in 2007, when a number of Banks and Managed funds announced serious problems involving the mortgage sector. Although Australian banks were not directly affected, the loss of confidence in the banking sector as well as the slowdown in global trade impacted on our economy. As share markets crashed and the Australian dollar plummeted, aggregate net wealth declined, and the levels of unemployment increased. Unemployment increased from 4.1% in February 2008 to 5.8% in August 2009, and the Australian dollar went from $0.98 US in July 2008 to $0.60 in October 2008. During this period, the manufacturing, construction and retail sectors lost jobs whereas the health and social assistance sector gained jobs. A build-up of compositional changes to the labour market led to a decline in the aggregate monthly hours worked. The Australian Government quickly acted in late 2008 to lessen the impact of the GFC. First it guaranteed bank deposits which reassured depositors of the security of their savings and ensured banks’ access to capital markets was maintained. The government then introduced an initial stimulus package of billions of dollars, in order to alleviate the contraction in private spending. Furthermore, the government directed billions of dollars to infrastructure projects and to housing construction, and the Reserve Bank of Australia dramatically reduced interest rates to stimulate demand. Despite these measures, during the 2008-2009 financial year 27503 businesses were declared bankrupt and a further 9908 businesses ceased operating. Since the GFC, the economy has been growing reasonably well but a little bit below trend, and recently the unemployment rate has been slowly rising. Against the background of falling interest rates, investments in fixed income securities have performed exceptionally well, as has property as people take advantage of historically low mortgage rates. Equity markets have also shown improvement, particularly interest rate sensitive stocks such as banks and companies that have had exposure to the Asian region. Equity valuations are already factoring in an improvement in earnings and many stocks are trading at historical highs. What I have Invested in and why: This portfolio will be managed on a long term view (10 years plus); therefore it will not be actively traded. It will be as diversified as possible given the investment constraints of the assets permitted in this assignment. The portfolio holds equities and property, and avoids collectables which are harder to understand as there is less investment information. The portfolio should perform well over all economic cycles providing both capital and income gains. A diversified portfolio is desirable because research by Vanguard reported in Vanguard 2014 index chart “The Importance of a Long Term Vision” concludes after looking at 300 fund managers over 20
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