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Weighted average response: 4.5 years Source: Colliers International Survey (May 2014) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 0-2 years 2-4 years 4-6 years 6 years “ Should Scotland vote or independence, in what time rame would you expect inward investment to recover?” “ Survey respondents suggest that Scottish inward investment would recover 4.5 years ater the reerendum”. “ Scotland would be as risky as, or riskier than, the Eurozone periphery”. Riskier The Same Less Risky 2Research & Forecast Report | June 2014 | Scottish Reerendum | Colliers International volumes have held up better than many expected. Most recently, UK institutions have been buying in Scotland, accounting or 67% o the £677m in transactions to the end o April. In net terms, UK institutions have increased their Scottish holdings by some £442m so ar this year, while property companies have divested by a similar amount. Tis disinvestment may have less to do with reerendum worries, and more to do with normal UK property cycles. Te trend may also refect the ability o UK institutional unds to invest over longer periods and hence look past short-term volatilities. Te latest anecdotal evidence rom investors, including institutional unds active in the Scottish market, suggests that i the undamentals on an investment project add up, investors are still likely to proceed, but increasingly, worries about the reerendum are delaying deals. With summer holidays approaching, the World Cup, the Commonwealth Games and the Ryder Cup providing additional distractions, the Scottish property investment market may all into abeyance until late September. In this context, a ‘No’ vote might well precipitate an almighty transactional boom in the traditionally buoyant nal quarter. Tis begs the question as to what property proessionals are thinking. Te Survey In the rst two weeks o May, Colliers International conducted a survey to its client base. Te response was robust, with 150 property proessionals sharing their reactions to a series o questions. Te clear message was that all responses assigned additional risks to Scottish investment should Scotland vote or independence. Te ransition Period When asked over what time rame would inward investment be expected to recover to normal ater a ‘Yes’ vote, only 13% thought that this was likely in the rst two years. Interestingly, Scotland’s Future suggests that normalisation o all the necessary legal institutional arrangement and treaty revisions, as well as a new written constitution, will be complete by 24 March 2016 (18 months ater a ‘Yes’ vote). Te majority o surveyed opinion (68%) was divided equally between what might be described as the ‘cautious optimists’ (34%) who expected a recovery within two to our years and the ‘perpetual pessimists’ (34%) who expected a recovery in six or more years. Te weighted average o all responses suggests that recovery would come in 4.5 years. Te Risks Te survey responses also suggest that a substantial risk premium or investments would be required to compensate investors or additional risks during the period o normalisation. According to Scotland’s Future, the Scottish government would approach EU membership negotiations “. . . on the basis o the principle o continuity o eect.” Scotland is already part o the EU as a constituent nation o the UK and these arrangements are assumed to be carried orward. Despite these assertions, the sample was split over whether an independent Scotland would be a riskier investment than the Eurozone periphery. Te survey shows that 51% thought that Scotland would be a riskier investment than the Eurozone periphery. Te result might betray the risk-averse nature o property proessionals in the survey who invest on behal o pension unds and other risk averse organisations”. Alternatively, this result might also suggest lingering worries about the lack o a powerul monetary backstop, such as the European Central Bank or the Bank o England, but 49% o the sample elt the risks would be either similar (29%) or less risky (20%) than the Eurozone periphery.
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