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2 Investment Portfolio Samantha Carruthers Section A How has the investment climate in Australia changed over the last 7 years? Over the past seven years the world economy has suffered through a severe recession, commonly called the Great Financial Crisis or GFC. This reached its worst point in 2008-9 with hundreds of thousands of bankruptcies and many people losing homes savings jobs and businesses. Trillions of dollars disappeared from the values of both shares and property worldwide. In Australia the value of many stocks has still not reached 2006 levels. This crisis of confidence, caused by irresponsible lending by US banks culminated in 2007/8 and caused a large drop in asset values initially in the United States property and stock markets but later in markets throughout the world. A large merchant bank Lehman Brothers was allowed to fail sparking panic and forcing the US government to flood the world with money at very low interest rates, and guarantee shaky banks and insurance companies near 0% interest rates continue to today helping business but also causing large speculative increases in some assets like Australian real estate, and US stocks. Although our markets were initially severely affected Australia was able to do better than most, because of our strong trading relationship with China and Japan and our free floating exchange rate, which collapsed and made our exports cheaper. Luckily for Australia, China's government continued its urbanization and massive infrastructure-building program and this increased the demand for Australian raw materials. The Australian government also embarked on a huge education infrastructure program and actually gave away money to middle and lower income citizens to spend in the economy. This resulted in continued low growth but also resulted in a rapid increase in government debt. People in retirement have had a difficult time living off their savings during this period of low returns from bank interest. Those people who invested in high quality or" blue chip "stocks during the period 2008-9 have more than doubled their money. Dividend income from shares has also been a steady source of income for many investors. Since the depth of the recession in 2009, stock prices throughout the world have doubled. This recovery has resulted in price earning ratios returning to pre GFC levels and many stock appearing to be expensive on P/E ratio above 20 to 1. Over the past 5 years, reserve banks have forced down interest rate by printing money and quantitative easing. It is likely that in the near future the reserve banks will allow interest rates to rise again, which may cause a negative impact on stock prices. Given that the client, Samantha, is 15 years old and has a lifetime of work before the retirement I would suggest that the investments be more bias toward equities (shares) than dept. (bonds) although I have used bank shares as a replacement for bonds in the portfolio. Under the circumstances, I wouldn’t be buying stocks now because I believe they are over valued however for the purposes of this assignment my allocation would be as follows. Yahoo finance.com
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